Pager Explosions

Today (9/17/24), a few thousand pagers exploded more or less simultaneously in Lebanon. The pagers were used by members of Hezbollah. Pagers are more secure than mobile phones, which is why these members were using them.

The general consensus is that Israel was behind this. It is doubtful that anyone else could have pulled it off. And of course, there are the missile attacks coming from Hezbollah, which provides the incentive.

The Iranian ambassador was also injured in this attack. One might conjecture why the ambassador had such a pager. It appears that he was participating in Hezbollah’s activities.

These explosions injured a few thousand people, with a dozen or so fatalities. Tragically, two young children were among the fatalities.

The explosions appear not to have been intended to kill. It seems that the charges were too small for a lethal explosion. Leaving the victims alive could serve some purposes. For one, it may keep the public outcry from getting too shrill.

For another, it puts a burden on Hezbollah. Many of their mid-level members have been taken out of action, at least for a while. Also, these people are likely to view pages with deep suspicion, throwing their communications into disarray. It’s trashed the network they had mainly relied on. There must be other networks, but evidently this one was the one they used. It will take a while for Hezbollah to recover its ability to coordinate its members.

It seems to me that this might have been the beginning of a more focused strike against Hezbollah. Throw their communications into chaos, then start taking out their missile sites and weapons caches. I’m not a military person, so I couldn’t say whether this notion is valid. Still, it seems reasonable.

I do think that Hezbollah will have to take some sort of severe action, as a matter of saving face. This massive security breach has got to be highly embarrassing. They can’t afford to let it slide. Possibly they’re not able to muster up a response just now, with so many of their members out of action. Still, I’d think they’ll have to do something, soon.

As usual, there are some media nattering about how this sort of attack is “inappropriate.” Seems to me, though, that this is about as highly-targeted an attack as is practical. There evidently has been some unfortunate collateral damage, including the young children who died. However, the vast majority of casualties are active members of Hezbollah.

Update: On 9/18/24, hand-held radios also detonated. Several more people were killed and hundreds more injured, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. I don’t know what to make of this.

I suppose this sort of thing would make Hezbollah members reluctant to use a phone, pager, or other communication device. Who knows what else has been tampered with. But I’m not clear what the ultimate goal is here. Maybe just to make it more difficult to keep lobbing missiles into Israel. I don’t see that this alone is going to put an end to Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel..

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